According to a recent report in the Dallas Morning News, the housing market in North Texas is due for a rebound.

"The only question, analysts say, is how strong the bounce-back will be. And that depends on the economy, of course." Any sustained turnaround in sales and construction activity will definitely depend on the economy and job growth," said D'Ann Petersen, a business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "We do see increasing signs that the local economy has bottomed out, and business contacts say they are through cutting staff."

Petersen said there are signals that the worst is over for the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market. Next year will look better for builders and buyers.
"It will be slow going in 2010, but I do think that Dallas' housing market is in a better position than many other areas of the country to respond to positive economic growth," she said.

During the last two months, sales of pre-owned homes have increased significantly from year-ago numbers, and price declines have slowed. At the same time, the number of homes for sale in North Texas has fallen to the lowest level in more than two years.

Given the demand from homebuyers, builders will have to start more houses in 2010, said David Brown, an analyst with Metrostudy Inc.

"There now is currently less than a six-month supply of homes priced under $250,000 and just over a six-month supply of homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000," Brown said.

"If homebuilders are not able to start as many homes as they are closing because of lending constraints, then some of those buyers may be forced into the resale market and could cause new home closings to fall further next year."

Source: Dallas Morning News

The long run of declines in Dallas-Fort Worth home prices should turn positive next summer, according to a Dallasnews.com article sourcing an industry analyst's recent report.

First American CoreLogic, a California-based housing and finance information firm, is forecasting that home prices around the country will bottom by spring.

And in the DFW area, prices should be slightly positive by August, the firm's economists predict.

"In August 2010, the index is projecting that 12-month appreciation for Dallas-Plano-Irving home prices will be 0.21 percent," First American's latest report says.

That compares with a 0.12 percent decline in home prices here in the 12 months ending August 2009, the analyst said.

First American's current assessment of the DFW home market is a little more positive than other local and national measures, which say prices here are now down about 1 percent from a year ago.

But the research firm's assessment that residential values in North Texas are bottoming and will turn positive next year is in line with some other economists' forecasts.

Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic, said he expects nationwide home prices to "bounce around the bottom of the market in anticipation of a sustained recovery."

"While the majority of house price declines appear to be behind us, there are still a number of economic and institutional factors that are working against a solid and sustainable turnaround in the housing sector," Fleming said in his latest report. "As the economic landscape continues to change, so too will our forecasts."

First American estimates that nationwide home prices are down more than 10 percent in August from a year earlier. The biggest declines have come in Nevada, down 24.43 percent, and Arizona, down 19.53 percent.

But in Texas, prices are off only 0.26 percent from a year ago.

Houston – where prices are still up about 2 percent from last year – and Dallas were the best performing markets First American surveyed in August.

Source: Dallasnews.com

According to the latest Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, home values in Burleson increased 5.1% in the second quarter of 2009, compared to the second quarter of 2008.  Nationally, home values decreased 12.1% during this same period

Local housing experts say 2009 may be sluggish, but with interest rates at historic lows and looming inflation in 2010 and 2011, it's time to buy.

A panel of five residential industry leaders shared their analysis and forecasts of the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market at the Residential Real Estate Forum. The speakers included: Robert Gleason, director of governmental affairs for the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors; John V. Duca, vice president and senior policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Ted Wilson, principal at Residential Strategies Inc.; Dr. Mark Dotzour, chief economist and director of research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University; and Arthur Sterbcow, president of Latter & Blum Realtors in New Orleans.

"Unemployment is probably still going to rise quite a bit, but all the signs are classic signs that in two or three quarters, hopefully, [the recession is] going to be over," Duca said. "It's going to be a long way until we're all the way out, but we're going to get out and in Texas, we're not going down as much and a lot of people are moving in."

Wilson said the Dallas-Fort Worth area is in prime position for a rebound as the area has managed to maintain a six-month supply of homes on the market, which is the ideal supply.

"The new home supply is a little different, but in this area, builders did the right thing and pulled back. They have felt the pain here and have sold their way out of a lot of it," Wilson said.

But those cut-backs have come with a price, Wilson said. And that price has cost the Metroplex nearly one third of its builders.

Wilson said home prices, which have plummeted in some states throughout the nation, have remained positive in the Metroplex as Fort Worth reported a 1.21 percent increase in home prices in 2008 compared to a 4.47 percent loss nationally.

According to home cancellations numbers, Wilson said he thinks the bottom of the housing market was reached in November 2008, when hoards of home orders were cancelled as homebuyers grew leery of the failing national market.

"Increasingly, it looks like November was the bottom, which is a good thing since we're out of it," Wilson said.

Dotzour told Realtors to advise their clients of one key point: interest rates on loans are at a life-time low and the best time to invest in a home is now.

"There will be higher inflation in 2010 and 2011 no matter which way you cut it," Dotzour said. "… Interest rates are never going to get lower … Is the home going to lose some value? Maybe. But that's the short-term. In the long term, it will make money and that's what matters."

Sources: Fort Worth Business Press and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University